Sell the year after — stock held 5 years (founder exit ca)

Sell the year after — stock held 5 years ends $33.79M ahead of keep building, no sale after tax, but pays $3.52M more tax over a lifetime. The two measures disagree.

• Which of those matters depends on what you are optimising for — ending wealth, or tax paid along the way.
• 6 years more paying IRMAA surcharges.
• All of it under the assumptions listed below, which the reader can change.

What the tax change is made of

• State income tax: +$2.11M
• Tax on dividends, interest and portfolio gains: +$1.44M
• Federal income tax: −$65,083
• IRMAA surcharges on Medicare premiums: +$33,519

These add back to the total change; they are the same taxes the projection sums into the headline, discounted the same way.

Not financial or tax advice.

What this assumes

Every figure below depends on these. Change one and the answer changes.

Horizon

30 yearsHow many years the projection runs.

Nominal return

5%Assumed annual growth before inflation.

Inflation

2.5%Grows spending, and indexes brackets between published years.

Discount rate

3%Used to present-value lifetime tax — the headline metric.

Future tax law

Current law continuesLeft on current law, the projection assumes today’s brackets last the whole horizon — itself a forecast, not a neutral choice.

Year by year

Run this with your own numbers →